These are the questions that science
writer David Ewing Duncan asks in the new TED ebook, When I’m 164: The New
Science of Radical Life Extension, and What Happens If It Succeeds. The
following is a condensation of his answers on these questions.
In terms of life extension, what is reasonable to expect in the
next few decades? How many years can we add to the average life?
To answer this, let’s first consider that human lifespan at least
in the west has nearly doubled since the late nineteenth century, from under 40
years old to nearly 80 years old. This is due primarily to better hygiene and
nutrition, but also to a more than a century of extraordinary advances in
bioscience and medical technology — everything from antibiotics and heart
bypass surgery to new targeted drugs for cancer. According to the United
Nations, within a century the average life expectancy in the west will jump to
nearly 100 years. Filipinos in particular are now expected to live 72 years on
average.
Added to this steady upward tilt in aging is a range of new
technologies – genetics, stem cell therapies that regenerate tissue, and
bionics – that may provide an even bigger boost more quickly. How big a boost
is open to debate, with serious scientists giving ranges from a few years to a
few decades.
What breakthroughs are most important to these developments?
The book describes four main areas —
·
healthy
living and predictive and preventive medicine;
·
genetics;
·
regeneration;
and
·
machine
solutions.
Healthy living already has increased lifespans and prevented death
for literally billions of people over the past 150 years, but we could still do
more, especially to combat lifestyle conditions and diseases like obesity and
diabetes, which prematurely kill millions of people a year.
For genetics, mainstream scientists for 30 years have been studying
and trying to better understand the process of aging at the genetic and
cellular level, as well as in entire organisms. They have succeeded in
manipulating genes and proteins that seem to regulate lifespan in worms, flies,
mice and other creatures — sometimes upping lifespan by many times. More
importantly perhaps, they slow the aging process by delaying or preventing
diseases of aging like heart disease and diabetes. Several drug companies are
developing drugs for conditions like diabetes and inflammation that activate
enzymes linked to increased lifespans in mice and other animals, and may work
in bumping up lifespans for humans, too. At least one of these pills, a
compound that treats inflammation being tested by GlaxoSmithKline, is in Phase II
human testing. If successful, it could be on the market in under 5 years.
For regeneration, scientists have succeeded in using stem cells –
the special cells that replace dying cells in different organs – to regrow or
repair hearts, livers and other tissue in animals. They have some success in
regenerating tissue in humans, but only for simple organs like a bladder or
bone marrow. Using stem cells to regrow, say, cells in the heart or brain still
remain years in the future, say scientists.
For machine solutions, humans have long fused machines or
engineered devices and tools to their biology to improve or treat conditions or
maladies. These include everything from eyeglasses to pacemakers and joint
replacements. More recently, inventions and breakthroughs are already linking
devices to the brain to help patients with Parkinson’s Disease control tremors
and to help some people who are deaf to hear again. Other experimental
machine-brain interfaces may soon allow the paralyzed to operate computers
using thought.
For the past 3 or 4 years, the author has been asking a question at
the start of most of his talks: “How long do you want to live? I’ve kept track
of the show of hands and over time have polled some 30,000 people. I asked
people to vote on one of four answers: 80 years; 120 years; 150 years; or
forever. It was a surprise to me that 60 percent of the people want to live the
current average life expectancy of about 80 years. Other results: 30 percent
want to live to age 120; less than 10 percent to age 150; and less than one
percent forever.”
What are the upsides and downsides to living much longer?
For the book the author asked hundreds of people why they voted the
way they did in the “how long do you want to live” survey. Here are the eight
primary reasons people voted to live to the ages of 80 or 120, and not longer:
Fear of
prolonged frailty
Money:
how to pay for an extended life
Life is
hard
Wars,
plagues and poverty
Overpopulation,
resource depletion and the environment
Love and
relationships
Boredom
We would cease to be human
As for those respondents who said they want to live to 150 years or
beyond, their stated reasons for wanting to live radically longer than current
human life expectancy fell into five broad categories:
More
time with loved ones
Geniuses
would still be alive
Want to
know the future
More to
do and accomplish in life
Avoiding the frailty of old age
As you can see, prolonging life can be both a blessing and a
burden. But few doubt that we are at the cusp of an age that will see humans
able to live much longer lives.
On a personal note, I would
like to live just long enough to see the Philippines to finally start emerging
from widespread feudalism to attain Utopian democracy. Hopefully in a few
years.
It should be our
generation’s final duty to initiate moves TO ELIMINATE FEUDALISM – THE SINGULAR
AND GREATEST STUMBLING BLOCK TO OUR DEVELOPMENT AS A FREE AND PROUD NATION.
Otherwise, we continue to be branded as a “country of slaves” by our neighbors
– an apt tag while there is an overwhelming dominance of the very small feudal
minority over the very great majority of “slaves”.
