Archive for December 2011

THINKING AHEAD

The Philippines in the context of Middle East Developments
With the withdrawal of US Forces from Iraq, analysts have started to look into the future. No matter what the original reason for the Iraqi war is, the world is anxiously waiting for developments on the Sunni awakening movement in Iraq after having laid the groundwork for the most important outcome of the Iraq war: the first ever voluntary social contract among Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites on how to share power and resources in an Arab country and to govern themselves within a democracy. The US spent a fortune helping to broker that agreement in Iraq, and now every other Arab democracy movement is trying to follow suit on their own. 

Iraq is a transformational model where Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, the secular and religious, Muslims and non-Muslims, can live together and share power. We see in Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Bahrain, that this is the issue that will determine the future of Arab countries in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Can the Arab countries develop pluralistic, consensual politics, with regular rotations in power, where people can live harmoniously as citizens and not feel that their tribe, sect or party has to rule to survive? This cannot happen overnight in Iraq, but it is the necessary condition for democracy to take root in that region. Without it, the Arab world will be a dangerous boiling pot for a long time, ready to boil over engulfing the rest of the world. 

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